BOSTON -- The New England Patriots -- and, by extension, their fans -- got a firsthand look at how valuable winning can be this past weekend in Chicago. With nine sacks from the defense, some gutsy play from the rookie quarterback, and a surprisingly effective performance from the offensive line in both the running and passing game, the Patriots walked out of the Windy City with a strut in their stride after picking up just their third win of the year.
In their wake, they left a Bears team in shambles, with questions about their coaching and their rookie top-pick quarterback left echoing after the boos from Sunday at Soldier Field finally faded from earshot.
It was a net positive of a weekend for the Patriots, yes, but winning as a bad team in a year when there are so many bad teams does have its consequences in the long game. And in this case, that meant a major drop in draft position for New England.
The Patriots, as you surely knew, entered last week with a 2-7 record, sitting in the ignominious but coveted position as owners of the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Yet the victory that improved the Patriots to 3-7 moved them out of the No. 1 overall spot and down to the No. 6 spot.
NFL DRAFT ORDER (AFTER WEEK 10, PER TANKATHON)
1. Jacksonville (2-8)
2. New York Giants (2-8)
3. Tennessee (2-7)
4. Cleveland (2-7)
5. Las Vegas (2-7)
6. NEW ENGLAND (3-7)
7. New Orleans (3-7)
8. New York Jets (3-7)
9. Carolina (3-7)
10. Miami (3-6)
11. Dallas (3-6)
They were helped out a bit by AFC East rival Miami, as the Dolphins beat the Rams on Monday Night Football to improve to 3-6. But old friend Mac Jones was dreadful for the Jaguars, Daniel Jones was awful for the Giants in Germany, the Browns and Raiders stayed at two wins at their by, and the Raiders, and the Titans continued to be a just plain bad team (when not playing against the Patriots) with a loss in L.A. to the Chargers.
At this point, it’s worth stating this: The Patriots are very, very, very unlikely to land the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. And given the glut of bad teams filling the bottom third of the NFL standings, the Patriots are unlikely to even end up in the top three.
Even in saying that, there’s probably only one or two wins left on the Patriots’ schedule. The Patriots will host the 4-5 Rams (on a short week) on Sunday at Gillette, before traveling to Miami to face the 3-6 Dolphins. Then the Patriots will close out their pre-bye schedule with a home date against the Colts, who are currently 4-6. They should win at least one of those.
The final four dates to close out the year are distinctly less winnable -- two games vs. the Bills in a three-week span, a trip to Arizona to face the Cardinals (6-4), and a home date with the Chargers (6-3) -- but it’s overall not difficult to foresee the Patriots continuing their .300 winning percentage over the final seven games and finishing the year at 5-11.
If you do choose to hold out hope that the Patriots will end up in the bottom three of the league, there is this: Tankathon lists the Patriots as having the third-hardest schedule remaining in the entire NFL. Only the Bears (4-5) and Browns (2-7) have harger schedules. Meanwhile the Dolphins, Saints, Jaguars and Jets all rank in the top five of easiest schedules remaining. So things could still shake out several different ways between now and early January.
But again ... winning has benefits. Drake Maye is both establishing his place in the NFL and winning over his teammates. Kayshon Boutte is making important year-two strides. Jerod Mayo is learning on the fly. Development can be found up and down the roster, and it’s just much easier to see some of it when the team dominates an opponent like the Patriots just did to the Bears.
And given that the Patriots appear to have their quarterback and will be mostly shopping for tackles and receivers come springtime, they should be all right in the long term if they do end up somewhere in that 5-7 range at the top of the first round.